Major Hurricane Ophelia; Nalgae about to slam the Philippines

Hurricane Ophelia is now a Category Three hurricane as opposed to the Category One hurricane that it was yesterday at this time. Despite the wind shear and dry air, Ophelia has remarkably been able to fight it off to tighten its core to become the third major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Additional strengthening is possible, but not anticipated as it moves into an unfavorable environment for strengthening. Bermuda is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch and that may be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning later on if Ophelia continues to progress to the north. However, Ophelia is expected to be weighted to the east so it is likely that Bermuda only gets a shower or two. For the most part, Ophelia will be mainly a shipping hazard.

Tropical Storm Philippe has strengthened slightly to a 50mph tropical storm. Weakening is anticipated as it starts to make a bend to the west. Philippe may be around for a while considering the semi-favorable conditions that it may encounter.

Tropical Depression Hilary is weakening and is not expected to threaten any

one. A slow death is what she will die.

Tropical Storm Nesat has moved inland on Vietnam and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has written the last advisory for the system.

Typhoon Nalgae is a Category 4 equivalent typhoon about to slam the

coast of the Philippines. Even though the typhoon is a fairly small one, it does not mean that there will not be loss of life and property damage. Filipinos in the area should evacuate NOW! A Category Four typhoon can do extreme damage to buildings. Flooding will be the main concern as Nalgae moves across Luzon. After that Nalgae is forecasted to weaken due to the cool wake left behind by Nesat.gae is a Category 4 equivalent

I may have more than one post tomorrow.

Matt

5pm EDT Update - Hurricane Ophelia; TS's Philippe, Hilary, and Nesat

Ophelia is now the fourth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since this has been upgraded, the government of Bermuda (like I have previously said) has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island. Additional strengthening is possible and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.

Tropical Storm Philippe has not changed in intensity. However, a new center may be formed under the convection. We will see soon.

Hurricane Hunters went into Tropical Storm Hilary and found a slightly stronger storm. However, she should weaken due to cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere.

Typhoon Nesat has been downgraded to a tropical storm. Tomorrow morning should be Nesat's third landfall. This should move inland on Vietnam.

There has not been a new advisory issued for Typhoon Nalgae, but I will have an update on it tomorrow.

Matt

Ophelia almost a hurricane; Nesat battering China; Typhoon Nalgae a concern

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Ophelia is close to hurricane intensity this afternoon with winds of 70mph. Ophelia is very well organized with an eye trying to pop out on satellite. Additional strengthening into a hurricane is anticipated tonight or tomorrow. Bermuda needs to be on standby because Tropical Storm Advisories may be issued tonight or tomorrow. Ophelia will make her closest approach to the island on Saturday. I would be ready in case Ophelia does make her way toward the island. By that time, Ophelia is forecasted to be a strong Category One hurricane with winds of 85mph. This could cause significant damage to the island. Flooding and Storm Surge will also be a threat as we traverse through time.

Tropical Storm Philippe is not looking very interesting. He is expected to strengthen slightly before moving westward into an unfavorable environment. Philippe is not a concern to land.

Models are starting to hint at some possible development in the Caribbean in early October. With forecasted steering patterns continue to become more certain, places like Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas need to be aware of this as it could be similar to a storm like Hurricane Lili in 1996.

Tropical Storm Hilary weakening

Tropical Storm Hilary is now a minimal tropical storm and is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or tomorrow.

Nesat battering China; Nalgae to strike the Philippines soon

Typhoon Nesat is still a Category One hurricane between the little 'thumb' of China and Hainan Island. This was a bad situation for the China mainland as they got most of the heavy rain and wind. The area is also very prone to storm surge and it bends in a 'C' shape. Nesat should dump heavy rainfall in the amounts of probably 10 - 14 inches with local amounts possibly totaling 20 inches.

Typhoon Nalgae is strengthening as it nears the Philippines. Evacuations need to be taken immediately. Even though Nalgae is a small storm, it could still pack quite a punch. Nalgae is forecasted to make landfall as a major typhoon with winds equivalent to Category 3 force. Heavy rainfall will be an issue as well as wind damage to buildings and homes. Power outages is always a concern.

I'll have an update once the 5pm advisories come out.

Matt

Twin systems in the Atlantic; Hilary weakening; Nesat aiming at China

Ophelia is now back to tropical storm status this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are at 50mph with higher gust. Additional strengthening is possible and intensification into a Category One hurricane is possible. Ophelia is moving away from the Lesser Antilles and will be making impacts on the island of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Advisories may be needed sometime tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle with wind shear. Philippe is moving away from land and is expected to become a remnant low pressure system sometime soon.

Hurricane Hilary continues to weaken this afternoon. NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane earlier this afternoon and found that Hilary is still an 80mph Category One hurricane. Additional weakening is expected until it becomes a remnant low pressure system.

Typhoon Nesat is inching closer to the China coastline. It is very possible that Nesat will hit the China coastline as a Category One hurricane or strong tropical storm. Heavy rainfall and flooding

will be imminent over the next day as Nesat moves onshore.

Tropical Storm Nalgae is strengthening and improving on satellite. With maximum sustained winds near 65mph, Nalgae will most likely become a typhoon sometime tonight or tomorrow. The Philippines need to monitor the progress of Nalgae as it could be a typhoon threatening the area in about 3 to 4 days from now.

Matt

Ophelia regenerates; Philippe and Hilary weaken; Nesat back over water

Tropical Depression Ophelia has come back to life tonight as a tropical depression with winds estimated to be around 30mph. Satellite appearances show it all as we monitor a possible hurricane on our hands. Ophelia is expected to produce about 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the next few days. Bermuda is the only land mass that may have to deal with wind from Ophelia, but the Lesser Antilles need to be prepared in the case of flooding and high winds.

Tropical Storm Philippe is a weakening system thanks to high wind shear. The shear has torn the system apart and now has an exposed low level center of circulation. Philippe may degenerate into a remnant low pressure system tomorrow or Thursday.

Hurricane Hilary is now a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is making her turn to the north. Hilary is expected to bring heavy surf and possibly a shower or two to the Baja Peninsula.

Typhoon Nesat has left the island of Luzon and is now centered over the South China Sea. This system is expected to re-intensify and possibly hit Hainan Island in about 3 days. Vietnam and Southern China may have to deal with Nesat as well.

Another tropical depression has formed in the vicinity of Nesat and its name is Nalgae. Nalgae is a strengthening tropical depression with winds of 35mph and is expected to become a typhoon. This one is expected to bend to the west-southwest by days 4 and 5 possibly making it hit the island of Luzon again. This system is one that the Philippines need to watch carefully.

That's all for today!

Matt

*Graphics are at the bottom of the blog archive*

Philippe maintains its intensity; Hilary to brush the Baja

Tropical Storm Philippe

Tropical Storm Philippe seems to be having difficulty strengthening. For the past day it has maintained a strength of about 60mph. Dry air seems to be the inhibiting factor. Philippe is forecasted to continue its northwestward track with a bend to the north and eventually by Day 5 the northeast. Philippe will only be a shipping hazard.

Hurricane Hilary to barely miss the Baja Peninsula

Hurricane Hilary is a strong Category 3 hurricane this afternoon. Hilary is currently moving to

the west, however she is expected to the make a bend to the north sometime in the next day or

so. Where she essentially makes that bend will determine where she goes. If that turn occurs sooner, the Baja Peninsula may face a hit from a weaker Hilary. However, if it occurs later, the peninsula may not be hit at all. It all depends on when and where that bend occurs. By Day 5, Hilary should weaken to a remnant low due to an unstable atmosphere and very cool waters.

Picture 1: Hilary at peak intensity

Typhoon Nesat about to make landfall on Luzon

A powerful category 1 typhoon in the Western Pacific is about to make landfall on the most populated island of the Philippines. Nesat is a very large and dangerous typhoon with winds of about 90mph. Additional strengthening to a Category 2 typhoon is possible before landfall. Nesat is expected to move onto the island sometime tonight (Eastern Daylight Time/USA) and will take it's time moving off. Since this is such a large storm tremendous flooding is possible. The next target will be Hainan Island. It should hit there as a weak typhoon, but still will produce a large amount of rainfall.

Matt

Ophelia barely a tropical cyclone; Philippe no threat; Hilary weakening

Ophelia very weak at the moment

Tropical Storm Ophelia is barely a tropical cyclone on this Sunday afternoon. High wind shear has sheared the low level circulation center to the west of all the convection. Ophelia is expected to weaken or even degenerate into an open wave or surface trough sometime later today. However, the rain from Ophelia should reach the Leeward Islands sometime tonight into tomorrow morning. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for no change in strength for the next two to three days with gradual to slow strengthening after then. Ophelia is expected to make a northwesterly turn and even a northerly turn by Friday. This will bring Ophelia close to Bermuda, however wind shear should keep most of the bad weather to the east of the circulation. Meaning if Ophelia goes right over the island, Bermuda would be spared from the worst of the storm.

Tropical Storm Philippe

Tropical Storm Philippe formed yesterday from Tropical Depression Seventeen to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Philippe has maintained its strength today and the forecast calls for gradual strengthening of the system into a possible low end Category 1 Hurricane by Tuesday morning. This is not out of the question as the conditions should be marginal to favorable for the system by that time. It is very possible that Philippe may not strengthen to a hurricane at all. If it does become a hurricane, Philippe is not a threat to any land areas.

Picture 1: Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe

Hurricane Hilary weakening and moving away from land

After her peak of about 145mph, Hilary is now weakening and is now a 125mph Category 3 hurricane. Hilary is a small system with hurricane winds only extending out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending out about 70 miles from the center. The forecast for Hilary continues her movement westward through day 3 and at Day 4, Hilary is making a move to the north. By next week Hilary may have an impact across the Baja Peninsula. In the long term, the remnants of Hilary may give some much needed rainfall across the desert Southwest.

Matt