CSU issues their 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

Today, Colorado State University issued their hurricane predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The team is very skeptical about a normal-above average season this year. Proof for this is shown in the equatorial Pacific where sea-surface temperatures are warming. This is a sign that neutral to weak El Niño conditions are likely. With the warming, the outflow will cause wind shear in the breeding grounds for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic causing a decrease in the number of storms this season.

Their forecast is calling for 10 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This is actually around the statistics for a normal hurricane season. This will be a MAJOR drop from our past two hurricane seasons where 2010 and 2011 both produced 19 tropical storms.

A recent synopsis of the Gulf of Mexico shows that the body of water is well above average in terms of instability. Instability is needed for storms to fire, which is also how tropical storms and hurricanes maintain or strengthen themselves. It is possible that this will be the area where most of our storms will form and strengthen.

The names for this season are the same from the 2006, a year that was also an El Niño event which produced 9 tropical storms.

It is possible that this season will not be what predictors call a "bust". It is easy to say this because with an El Niño event, the chances for a United States landfall rises significantly. This is due to the fact of the home grown mischief that likes to rapidly intensify and move ashore. Us predictors and forecasters will continue to monitor the signs that tell the tale of this upcoming Hurricane Season.