Quiet for now

All is quiet!! Rina made landfall close to Cozumel a couple of days ago, but considerably weaker than previously forecasted. Rina made landfall as a tropical storm, and weakened shortly after entering the Yucatan Channel. She degenerated into a remnant low pressure soon thereafter.

The Atlantic Season is coming to a close, as we only have one more month to go. November typically brings little to no activity for the Atlantic. I think we may see one or two more disturbances form with one possibly becoming a tropical system possibly gaining the name Sean. Forecasters were considerably hyper on their forecasts this year. October was not as promising as it seems it would be. Two disturbances possibly should have been classified as subtropical or tropical systems, but they were not classified.

As our attention slows down on the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific, we start to focus our attention to the southern hemisphere. This is a La Niña year, so expect to see less activity in the Southwest Indian Ocean Basin, and more activity in the South Pacific and Australian regions. We also focus our attention to the North Indian Ocean for the month of November mainly because this is a secondary peak for their year round season, their first peak is typically in May.

That's all for today.

Matt

Rina forms and rapidly strengthens; 97L a threat as well

Hurricane Rina is the main topic this afternoon. About 28 hours ago, Tropical Depression Eighteen was declared from Invest 96L as it had gained enough organization to be declared a tropical depression. Six hours later, Eighteen was named 'Rina.' This name replaced Rita from 2005. Twenty-one hours after classification, Rina had rapidly strengthened to a hurricane thanks to Hurricane Hunter observations. There are no advisories at this time, but interests along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan should monitor the progress of Rina. A Hurricane Watch should be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Latest microwave imagery shows that Rina has an open eyewall to the northeast, but it is slowly closing off. When it does, rapid intensification may occur again. Rina is expected to become a major hurricane soon per the National Hurricane Center. The forecast remains fairly uncertain and it currently has Rina making landfall on the coast of the Yucatan in about four days with a sharp turn to the east thereafter.

A broad area of low pressure (Invest 97L) is bringing squally weather to the ABC Islands tonight. Satellite shows a disorganized system, but models show some development of this system. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a 20% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. Conditions are only marginally favorable for development and cyclogenesis will be slow to occur. The NOGAPS model shows that 97L which reach a moist environment between Jamaica and Nicaragua, forming it into a tropical depression. This scenario may happen and it seems like a logical one. This system could be a powerful storm for the island of Cuba and possibly Jamaica as it makes a turn to the north and north-northeast. I will continue to monitor this system for further development.

Matt

Tale of Two Invests: 96L and 97L

I apologize for not updating this blog during Hurricanes Jova and Irwin along with two possible developments in the Atlantic. School work has been the main priority here lately.

Today there is an invest in the Southwestern Caribbean that is trying to get it's act together. Invest 96L doesn't have any signs of a surface circulation at the moment, but surface pressures are falling in the area. This system is also currently drifting to the south, but a more northerly motion is expected soon. Forecaster Avila had strong wording in his 2pm Tropical Weather Outlook stating that there is a 'likelihood that a tropical depression could form over the weekend'. The NHC is giving this system a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Eventually, this system might affect Florida and Cuba in about a week or so. This system will closely be monitored for any type of sudden development.

A pop up area of broad low pressure to the east of South America is trying to get its act together this afternoon. The NHC has named this Invest 97L. Forecaster Avila has 'up-ed' the chances of development to a 20% chance of development. Models aren't it very good agreement, but a slow movement to the north-northwest is likely over the next couple days with a gradual turn to the west-northwest and eventually the west. This system has little time to develop before it starts to feel the affects of the outflow from a possible tropical cyclone: Invest 96L.

The next two names on the list are Rina and Sean.

Matt

No post

There will be no post tomorrow because I will be out of town all day and will not return until extremely late. Therefore, there won't be a post. I'll try to have one Sunday.

Thanks!

Matt

Hurricane Philippe now starting to weaken; Jova and Irwin eye Mexico

Hurricane Philippe is likely no longer a hurricane
on this Friday afternoon. With a center of circulation exposed to view and heavy wind shear doing the trick, Philippe will most likely be a tropical storm at the next advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 5pm EDT. Philippe shouldn't cause any trouble to any land areas.

The stationary front has stalled and a shortwave trough is now starting to amplify itself. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase around Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Low pressure is expected to form late this weekend, however any development will be slow to occur. With the subtropical jet stream tearing into the Caribbean, and possible development happening north of the jet stream, any development will be subtropical in nature. Many models develop the system and have it going many different places. However, I'm leaning towards the GFS (American) Model today. The Model takes the storm up to the east of Florida and takes it northward into Georgia and South Carolina. I think this may make landfall a little bit farther north, similar to where Hurricane Irene made landfall just a short time ago. You can expect heavy rainfall and winds to be the primary threat for the east coast. Rip currents and beach erosion are threats as well.

After the subtropical development is through, and dissipates, our attention will be turned toward the Caribbean for TRUE tropical development. We've been talking about this scenario now since the beginning of September, and the time has SLOWLY marched its way forward. With a hurricane and a tropical storm possibly becoming a hurricane soon in the Eastern Pacific, that same energy will make its way toward the Caribbean. Any system to form will be broad in nature, but it will be a heavy rain producer. The Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Cuba, Florida, and the Cayman Islands need to pay attention to this system, as it may strengthen into a deep system.

Hurricane Irwin is a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon, with satellite estimates a little higher since the 11am EDT advisory. The projected path for Irwin tells a tale of an erratic movement. The track bends Irwin to the east by Saturday and continues to motion until it reaches the coast of Mexico. Irwin can strengthen possibly to a major hurricane before dealing with wind shear. Irwin is not an immediate threat to Mexico right now.

Tropical Storm Jova this afternoon is increasing in intensity and it poses a larger threat to Mexico. This will be their first system to deal with, before Irwin. Jova is expected to make a turn to the north sometime Sunday with a turn to the northeast on Monday. Jova is expected to strengthen until landfall possibly as a major hurricane. We have not seen this happen since I believe Hurricane Kenna in 2002 which struck the coastline as a Category 5 hurricane. Thankfully, Jova should not be that strong. Jova is not an immediate threat to Mexico, but in time it will be.

Another invest in the Eastern Pacific, 99E is showing signs of organization this afternoon. This system is most likely going to become a tropical depression or storm in the next couple of days as well. It's most likely going to gain the name Kenneth in the process. This storm will move northeastward into the Gulf of Tehuantepec and either make landfall on the coast of Mexico, Guatemala, or El Salvador. This system will continue to be monitored.

That's all for today.

Matt

*On the second graphic, the storm on the left is Hurricane Irwin and the storm on the right is Jova.

**All image credit goes to NOAA.

Philippe becomes a hurricane; Irwin and Jova have evil plans

Philippe is now a hurricane with winds of 85mph. The National Hurricane Center, as of 5pm, has increased the wind speed of the hurricane, however they stated in their discussion (Discussion #51) that the intensity may be a bit conservative. Philippe definitely has an impressive look on satellite and it is possible that Philippe peaks at a Category 2 hurricane before further weakening. Philippe is no hazard to any land masses.

Models are still forecasting subtropical development off the coast of Florida from the stationary cold front that is already off the coast. Meteorologists and Huricanologists are comparing this storm to the Subtropical Storm of 1974, which brought heavy beach erosion, rip currents, gales, and heavy rains to the coast of Florida. With the MJO (a cycle that brings rising motion to the Atlantic allowing thunderstorms to form) coming into our area soon, it will only increase the percentages of a subtropical storm actually forming. We could very well be talking about Subtropical Storm Rina early next week.

We have two tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific and both pose a significant threat to the coast of Mexico, preferably the Cabo Corrientes, Zihuatanejo, Puerto Vallarta, and Manzanillo areas. Tropical Storm Jova poses the earliest threat. The just named storm, Jova has winds of 40mph, and is currently expected to come ashore as a strong Category 2 hurricane sometime Monday Night or Tuesday Afternoon. Our next storm is Tropical Storm Irwin, a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph. Irwin will also pose a threat to the same areas, however, it is too early to tell when the storm may affect the areas. Tropical Storm Watches will be needed sometime over the weekend for Tropical Storm Jova.

Just recently, the Eastern Pacific went from dead, to very active. This is due to the MJO coming into the area. This same MJO will enter the Atlantic and will provide a better environment for strengthening.

Matt

Philippe still around; Two new Eastern Pacific areas

Tropical Storm Philippe is still around as a 65mph tropical storm. Convection is still displaced to the south of the center of circulation due to strong wind shear affecting him from the north. Philippe is now moving to the north ever so slowly at about 7mph, but should turn to the northeast and Philippe has the potential to peak as a minimal category 1 hurricane tomorrow afternoon. Shortly thereafter, wind shear should increase and Philippe will combine with a frontal boundary and become post-tropical.

Subtropical Development seems to be the new hot topic in the tropics. This weekend, we will need to watch the coast of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas for possible subtropical development. A stationary frontal boundary is stalled out off the coast of Florida and with a high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south, a trough split should occur which will allow any mischief to start brewing. The subtropical jet stream is located over the Caribbean Sea currently, shearing the area. With all of these things coming into play, it is logical that there will be cold air aloft and subtropical genesis may occur. This storm will be watched for possible strengthening, and it may impact the East Coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday. By that time, the GFS (American Computer Model) is forecasting that there is a tropical storm approaching, if not already at, hurricane strength. What you can count on is for stormy weather and gale force winds across the area through the weekend into early next week. The next name on the list is Rina.

In the Eastern Pacific, Invests 97L and 98L have taken shape and are rapidly getting organized. It is very possible that we could be talking about Tropical Depressions Ten-E and Eleven-E tomorrow afternoon. Thankfully these systems will be no threat to land. The next names on the list are Irwin and Jova.

Super Typhoon Nalgae has dissipated to the east of Vinh, Vietnam. Expect heavy rainfall over the next couple of days, even though it is no longer a tropical system.

Sorry for not having a post yesterday. I suddenly became very busy.

Matt