Philippe still around; Two new Eastern Pacific areas

Tropical Storm Philippe is still around as a 65mph tropical storm. Convection is still displaced to the south of the center of circulation due to strong wind shear affecting him from the north. Philippe is now moving to the north ever so slowly at about 7mph, but should turn to the northeast and Philippe has the potential to peak as a minimal category 1 hurricane tomorrow afternoon. Shortly thereafter, wind shear should increase and Philippe will combine with a frontal boundary and become post-tropical.

Subtropical Development seems to be the new hot topic in the tropics. This weekend, we will need to watch the coast of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas for possible subtropical development. A stationary frontal boundary is stalled out off the coast of Florida and with a high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south, a trough split should occur which will allow any mischief to start brewing. The subtropical jet stream is located over the Caribbean Sea currently, shearing the area. With all of these things coming into play, it is logical that there will be cold air aloft and subtropical genesis may occur. This storm will be watched for possible strengthening, and it may impact the East Coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday. By that time, the GFS (American Computer Model) is forecasting that there is a tropical storm approaching, if not already at, hurricane strength. What you can count on is for stormy weather and gale force winds across the area through the weekend into early next week. The next name on the list is Rina.

In the Eastern Pacific, Invests 97L and 98L have taken shape and are rapidly getting organized. It is very possible that we could be talking about Tropical Depressions Ten-E and Eleven-E tomorrow afternoon. Thankfully these systems will be no threat to land. The next names on the list are Irwin and Jova.

Super Typhoon Nalgae has dissipated to the east of Vinh, Vietnam. Expect heavy rainfall over the next couple of days, even though it is no longer a tropical system.

Sorry for not having a post yesterday. I suddenly became very busy.

Matt