Rina forms and rapidly strengthens; 97L a threat as well

Hurricane Rina is the main topic this afternoon. About 28 hours ago, Tropical Depression Eighteen was declared from Invest 96L as it had gained enough organization to be declared a tropical depression. Six hours later, Eighteen was named 'Rina.' This name replaced Rita from 2005. Twenty-one hours after classification, Rina had rapidly strengthened to a hurricane thanks to Hurricane Hunter observations. There are no advisories at this time, but interests along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan should monitor the progress of Rina. A Hurricane Watch should be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Latest microwave imagery shows that Rina has an open eyewall to the northeast, but it is slowly closing off. When it does, rapid intensification may occur again. Rina is expected to become a major hurricane soon per the National Hurricane Center. The forecast remains fairly uncertain and it currently has Rina making landfall on the coast of the Yucatan in about four days with a sharp turn to the east thereafter.

A broad area of low pressure (Invest 97L) is bringing squally weather to the ABC Islands tonight. Satellite shows a disorganized system, but models show some development of this system. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a 20% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. Conditions are only marginally favorable for development and cyclogenesis will be slow to occur. The NOGAPS model shows that 97L which reach a moist environment between Jamaica and Nicaragua, forming it into a tropical depression. This scenario may happen and it seems like a logical one. This system could be a powerful storm for the island of Cuba and possibly Jamaica as it makes a turn to the north and north-northeast. I will continue to monitor this system for further development.

Matt