Ophelia barely a tropical cyclone; Philippe no threat; Hilary weakening

Ophelia very weak at the moment

Tropical Storm Ophelia is barely a tropical cyclone on this Sunday afternoon. High wind shear has sheared the low level circulation center to the west of all the convection. Ophelia is expected to weaken or even degenerate into an open wave or surface trough sometime later today. However, the rain from Ophelia should reach the Leeward Islands sometime tonight into tomorrow morning. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for no change in strength for the next two to three days with gradual to slow strengthening after then. Ophelia is expected to make a northwesterly turn and even a northerly turn by Friday. This will bring Ophelia close to Bermuda, however wind shear should keep most of the bad weather to the east of the circulation. Meaning if Ophelia goes right over the island, Bermuda would be spared from the worst of the storm.

Tropical Storm Philippe

Tropical Storm Philippe formed yesterday from Tropical Depression Seventeen to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Philippe has maintained its strength today and the forecast calls for gradual strengthening of the system into a possible low end Category 1 Hurricane by Tuesday morning. This is not out of the question as the conditions should be marginal to favorable for the system by that time. It is very possible that Philippe may not strengthen to a hurricane at all. If it does become a hurricane, Philippe is not a threat to any land areas.

Picture 1: Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe

Hurricane Hilary weakening and moving away from land

After her peak of about 145mph, Hilary is now weakening and is now a 125mph Category 3 hurricane. Hilary is a small system with hurricane winds only extending out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending out about 70 miles from the center. The forecast for Hilary continues her movement westward through day 3 and at Day 4, Hilary is making a move to the north. By next week Hilary may have an impact across the Baja Peninsula. In the long term, the remnants of Hilary may give some much needed rainfall across the desert Southwest.

Matt