Ophelia now a Category Four hurricane; Nalgae weakening in Nesat's wake

Hurricane Ophelia is a Category 4 hurricane tonight. Ophelia has surprised everyone by her intensifica
tion under somewhat hostile conditions. The eye has warmed and is surprisingly clear. There is nothing really inhibiting Ophelia from strengthening and has a shot at becoming the strongest storm thus far. The strongest (pressure wise) have been Hurricane Irene and (wind wise) Katia. Ophelia is currently about 140 miles east of Bermuda. Bermuda has been spared from her wrath. However, Bermuda has gotten some showers and thunderstorms from Ophelia. The Weather Service in Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the island, however the Environment of Canada has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. Since Ophelia has become much more stronger than previously forecasted, Newfoundland could get a hurricane from Ophelia. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is most likely expected sometime tomorrow.

Philippe has held on to life the past few days. He is currently under about 35-40kts of wind shear, mainly from the outflow of Hurricane Ophelia, yet he has current winds of 65mp

h which is up from the 50mph earlier this afternoon. Philippe is expected to bend westward with a turn to the northeast expected by day four.

Models continue to predict tropical cyclone development will happen sometime late next week. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a weather phenomena which brings rising motion to ocean waters allowing thunderstorms to form, is coming into our area soon. Any storm to form would either curve out into Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas or bend westward into the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. I will continue to monitor this situation as time progresses forward.

Typhoon Nalgae rapidly intensified last night to a super typhoon with winds of 150mph before

landfall on the island of Luzon. This was probably one of the worst case scenarios. Heavy rainfall has fallen across the island and Nalgae is under the cool wake left behind by Typhoon Nesat. Nalgae is expected to slowly weaken and follow a similar path to Nesat, however it will be a little farther south. A Vietnamese landfall near Hue is likely. Nalgae should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon at landfall.

Matt

(Next post will be Monday)