Philippe becomes a hurricane; Irwin and Jova have evil plans

Philippe is now a hurricane with winds of 85mph. The National Hurricane Center, as of 5pm, has increased the wind speed of the hurricane, however they stated in their discussion (Discussion #51) that the intensity may be a bit conservative. Philippe definitely has an impressive look on satellite and it is possible that Philippe peaks at a Category 2 hurricane before further weakening. Philippe is no hazard to any land masses.

Models are still forecasting subtropical development off the coast of Florida from the stationary cold front that is already off the coast. Meteorologists and Huricanologists are comparing this storm to the Subtropical Storm of 1974, which brought heavy beach erosion, rip currents, gales, and heavy rains to the coast of Florida. With the MJO (a cycle that brings rising motion to the Atlantic allowing thunderstorms to form) coming into our area soon, it will only increase the percentages of a subtropical storm actually forming. We could very well be talking about Subtropical Storm Rina early next week.

We have two tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific and both pose a significant threat to the coast of Mexico, preferably the Cabo Corrientes, Zihuatanejo, Puerto Vallarta, and Manzanillo areas. Tropical Storm Jova poses the earliest threat. The just named storm, Jova has winds of 40mph, and is currently expected to come ashore as a strong Category 2 hurricane sometime Monday Night or Tuesday Afternoon. Our next storm is Tropical Storm Irwin, a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph. Irwin will also pose a threat to the same areas, however, it is too early to tell when the storm may affect the areas. Tropical Storm Watches will be needed sometime over the weekend for Tropical Storm Jova.

Just recently, the Eastern Pacific went from dead, to very active. This is due to the MJO coming into the area. This same MJO will enter the Atlantic and will provide a better environment for strengthening.

Matt