Computer models are continuing to insist that we will have tropical storms in both basins by the end of the month. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) has been designated in the Eastern Pacific and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a low chance (10%) of developing in the next 48 hours. Tropical Storms this late in the season is very rare and there have only been 3 on record to have formed this late in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951, Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971, and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms affected land, and our potential Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm's track is uncertain.
Figure 1: My graphic on our newly formed Invest 90E.
In the Atlantic, the models are back on board with tropical/subtropical development northeast of the Atlantic. The origins would likely be non-tropical and the system would likely meander for a couple of days. This is similar to how Tropical Storm Sean developed.
So it's extremely possible that we get both Tropical Storm Kenneth (EPAC) and Tropical Storm Tammy (ATL) between now and next week. It's even possible that Kenneth could become a hurricane, if conditions improve for development.
Our first tropical disturbance of the 2011-12 South Pacific Season formed the other day and was extremely large in nature, almost monsoonal. This storm dumped a lot of rainfall on the island of Fiji. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, at one time, gave this a Medium chance of development. However, the system was just too large, and wind shear was just too strong for this system to actually gain a name. We are in a La Niña event which typically means a more active season for both the South Pacific and the Australian Region. Activity is usually suppressed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during this event.
I'll have more updates as we learn more about our possible developments.
Matt
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for commenting. Your comment is now pending approval.