A new tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea is causing havoc to portions of South India tonight. The cyclone has already caused three fishermen to go missing, as well as about 1500 homes in Sri Lanka being damaged. This system means business! Right now, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is classifying this system as a tropical storm, however the India Meteorological Department is assessing this as a deep depression. This is why 05A has not gained a name yet. However, they continue to insist that this system will become a cyclonic storm thus gaining the name Thane. The JTWC also continues to insist that conditions will only be marginal for development, thus making strengthening difficult for the system. They only expect 05A to reach a peak of about 60mph.
An area of broad low pressure in the Southwest Indian Ocean continues to be stationary and struggle to develop. This system, designated 96S by the JTWC, has not moved in the past 12 hours. With vertical wind shear of about 30 knots impacting the system, mostly from the outflow of Tropical Cyclone 05A, any strengthening will be difficult. However, this system has shown signs of fighting for survival. The first name on the list is Alenga if it were to in fact to strengthen enough into such a storm.
Figure 1: Tropical Cyclone Five-A is shown to the west of India, and 96S is shown to the northeast of Madagascar.
That's all for today!
Matt
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